July 2022 – PIP – Philippine Institute of Petroleum

WORLD OIL PRICES (June 27-July 01, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by about $3.45/bbl. On the contrary, MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have fallen by around $2.50 per barrel and $10.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude prices remained volatile as market sentiment wobbled between exacerbated supply tightness and looming recession fears. On the bullish side, concerns are focused on production losses in Libya and Ecuador, as well as the limited ability for OPEC+ to produce more crude oil. Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corp. was close to declare force majeure on oil exports from its main oil terminals.

o The ongoing protests and blockades in Ecuador also threaten to completely shut off the nation’s crude production in the eastern Amazon. The two countries combine to produce well more than 1 million b/d of crude. At the G7 meeting, leaders agreed to cap prices on Russian barrels including shipping, financing, and insurance but numerous questions remain unanswered such as which criteria will be used to set the maximum price.

Asian gasoline market remained firm on peak demand driving season in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer.

o Indonesia’s light distillate imports rose 33.44% year on year to 2.153 million mt in April, latest Statistics Indonesia data showed on June 29, as inflows of 90 RON-97 RON gasoline grades surged almost 196%.

o India’s May consumption jumped 51.52% on the year and 7.84% on the month to 3.017 million mt, the highest in PPAC records dating back to 1998. Despite elevated gasoline production, some Indian oil companies were still short on gasoline and were active in purchasing cargoes in the spot market with arrival date in June and July.

o In US, summer driving demand continues to support the nation’s gasoline market, with the American Automobile Association expecting record levels of car travel over June 30-July 4.

On Asian gasoil/diesel supply is rising as refineries continued to maximize gasoil production, keeping pace with an increase in demand. In China, the national heavy truck index, an indicator of gasoil demand, recovered by 20% on month in June on eased lockdown and improved industrial activities. In India, gasoil output rose 3.06% on month to 10.12 million mt (2.43 million b/d) in May to meet growing domestic demand, while also capturing lucrative export margins.

o The unusual move by Indian refiners to import gasoil will likely be short-lived as increased supply from refiners and moderated demand during monsoon season will accelerate
rebalances in domestic market.

o Indonesia’s gasoil imports had been elevated over February-March due to the refinery maintenance at Balongan, which was reported to have comeback online in mid-May. As such, Indonesia’s gasoil imports volumes will likely moderate amid the increased domestic production in May and June.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.56 to P54.97 from P54.41 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 05 July 2022, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in diesel by P3.00 per liter and kerosene by P3.40 per liter. No movement has been effected on the price of gasoline.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P42.90/liter for diesel and P36.35/liter for kerosene, while that of gasoline remained at P30.00/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics