February 2023 – PIP – Philippine Institute of Petroleum

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 30-February 03, 2023 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $2.10/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by about $6.00, $7.70 and $7.80 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude oil futures fell amid concerns that elevated interest rates could weigh on global economic growth. The main upside continues to be China’s demand recovery following its
reopening.
A continued buildup in US commercial crude stocks to its highest outright level since June 2021 also added downward pressure to the markets. US crude oil inventories rose for the sixth straight week by 4.14 million barrels to 452.69 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 27, up 9.0% on year, US EIA data showed Feb. 1, due to weaker refinery demand and lower
exports.

On supply/demand fundamentals, the OPEC+ group reaffirmed the bloc’s current oil production quota in a ministerial meeting convened online briefly on Feb. 1, in line with market expectations. The main upside for global oil benchmarks continues to be China’s demand recovery following its reopening. The International Monetary Fund on Jan. 31 raised
its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2023 to 5.2%, up from 4.4% in its October forecast.

Asian gasoline crack weakened, tracking a narrower US-RBOB Brent crack spread, on the back of an inventory buildup in the US and Singapore.

On regional trade, market talks suggested China’s clean oil product exports could fall to about 3.9 million mt for February. Most of the reduction in Chinese exports is expected to be for gasoline, following a stronger-than-expected domestic demand rebound during the Lunar New Year celebrations.

On inventory, US gasoline stocks rose for a fourth straight week by 2.58million barrels to 234.60million barrels in the week ended Jan. 27, the highest since April 2022 but still down 6.2% on year. The gasoline build was centered on the US Atlantic Coast and Midwest, where stocks climbed 1.38 million barrels and 1.25 million barrels, respectively.

Asian gasoil crack weakened as receding East-West arbitrage economics weighed on sentiment. Singapore’s middle distillate stocks climbed to a 14-month high.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.19 to P54.29 from P54.48 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 07 February 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in gasoline by
P2.10, diesel by P3.00 and kerosene by P2.30.

These resulted to a total net increase this year to stand at P5.10/liter for gasoline, P0.05/liter
for diesel, and P2.25/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap 3 February 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics