Category: Oil Monitor

Posted on: June 24, 2025 by pip_admin

Oil Monitor as of 17 June 2025

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 09-13, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $3.81 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline and diesel have also increased by about $3.49 per barrel.  While kerosene increased by $3.38 per barrel as well.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

Crude oil prices moved sharply higher after Israel launched pre-emptive airstrikes against target across Iran.  Concerns over shipping passage through the Strait of Hormuz and war risk premiums resurfaced. The escalating Israel-Iran conflict caused widespread panic. Crude sees upside risks on supply disruption fears.

  • Israel’s airstrike against Iran prompted fear of supply disruptions from the Middle East.  Considering, Iran as the worlds 4th largest oil producer and exports over 2 million bpd of oil.  Retaliation of Iran raised concern of an all-out war between the two countries.
  • US and China had reached a trade “deal” after two days of negotiations in London, suggesting tensions between the two economic heavyweights could ease.  While the US-Iran nuclear negotiations remain stalled.
  • Asian refiners and crude traders anticipate the broader Middle Eastern sour crude prices to become increasingly expensive in the upcoming trading cycles due to escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.

The Asian gasoline market strengthened amid escalating tensions between Israel and Iran.  Israel launched air strikes targeting Iranian nuclear facilities, with reports that Israeli attacks may continue as they are targeting underground facilities.  Gasoline prices are likely to rise amid Middle East conflict.

The market was rangebound tracking gains amid rising demand, but higher crude prices offset the increase.  Expectation of lower exports from China in July amid lower refinery output and lower inflows from Middle East into the region. Returning supplies from refineries coming back from maintenance balanced the market.

The Asian gasoil market fell on sell tenders from North Asia and Middle East indicating higher regional supply.  Diesel demand was expected from trade negotiations between US and China however the impact was offset by rising crude prices.

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.14 to P55.86 from P55.72 in the previous week.   

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 17 June 2025, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.80/liter for gasoline and diesel, an increase of P1.50/liter for kerosene as well.

This brings a total net increase of P6.90/liter for gasoline and P6.65/liter for diesel.  Kerosene has a total net decrease of P.75/liter.

 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

Posted on: March 24, 2025 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 10-14, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude remained unchanged at around $71.20 per barrel.  The international prices of gasoline have decreased by about $0.70 per barrel along with kerosene by about $1.20 per barrel and diesel by around $1.40 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures rose amid a lower-than-expected stock increase in the US and OPEC+ plans to maintain production increases even with increased geopolitical uncertainties. 
    • The increase in US crude oil stocks were lower-than-expected in the week ended March 7, US EIA data showed March 12.  US commercial crude stocks increased by 1.5 million barrels.  Stocks have risen since mid-January as US refinery maintenance reduced crude inputs.  
    • The decision by the OPEC+ group to maintain plans to wind down 2.2 million b/d of voluntary crude production cuts starting in April continued to support current oil market with expectations of robust interest in the coming months. 
  • The Asian gasoline market complex strengthened from previous week on indication of growing US demand and anticipated supply tightness from the upcoming maintenance in Indonesia.   
    • Supplies continue to remain tight due to turnarounds in the US following the upcoming summer driving season and fewer arbitrage cargoes coming in Asia due to China’s scheduled maintenance have also contributed to the reduced supply. 
    • Global economic challenges, slowing petrochemical demand recovery and volatile crude prices will continue to pressure market prices in the coming weeks.  
  • The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil complex fell amid a well-supplied market and strong inventories.  Japan’s gasoil inventories remained largely unchanged.  With increase in the onshore commercial middle distillates stocks in Singapore, the market remains well supplied with no immediate shortage expected.  
  • The Asian kerosene/jet complex was weighted down by ample regional supply availability and reduces demand.  The decline of winter demand in East Asia has led to slower consumption, exerting downward pressure on the market.  Seasonal changes have resulted in reduced demand, contributing to market softness. 

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.22 to P57.33 from P57.55 in the previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 18 March 2025, local oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.20/liter for diesel and P0.40/liter for kerosene.  No adjustment for gasoline. 

Year-to-date, gasoline and diesel have a total net increase of P2.15/liter and P2.85/liter respectively while kerosene has a total net decrease of P0.70/liter.

 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

1 Asia Pacific 14 March 2025 Weekly Oil Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

Posted on: January 22, 2025 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 13-17, 2025, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $6.23 per barrel. The international prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $3.05, $5.61 and $5.45 per barrel, respectively. 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment

The week’s price rally reflects a convergence of bullish factors, including risk of US sanctions on Russia and seasonal winter demand strength. 

  • Crude oil futures rallied as traders rushed to find alternative supplies following the US sanctions on Russia’s energy industry, offsetting bearish pricing developments from the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal.
  • The Asian gasoline market softened tracking a narrowing US-RBOB Brent crack amid rise in US stocks despite an expected drop in Chinese gasoline exports in February.
    • Higher domestic demand amid the Lunar New Year holidays could moderate China’s gasoline exports.
    • The rise in Australia’s gasoline inflows came due to the summer driving season.
  • The Asian jet fuel/kerosene market structure slightly softened amid steady fundamentals and ample supplies from China with kerosene demand seen eroding.
    • China is expected to prioritize jet fuel exports versus gasoil and gasoline as jet fuel export margin is the best among refined products.
  • The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil market was seen supportive, with sentiment mixed regarding the supply impact of fresh Russian sanctions.
    • Market participants expects that the new Russian sanctions would have a limited impact on the Asian gasoil market, primarily affecting freight, since Russian Gasoil mainly flows to Turkey and Brazil
  • The Asian low sulfur fuel oil market structure was seen lower on week amid lukewarm trading activity in the downstream bunker market.

FOREX:  The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.26 to P58.58 from P58.32 in the previous week.

 

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 21 January 2025, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.65/liter for gasoline while diesel increased of P2.70/liter and kerosene increased by P2.50/liter.

This is the third price adjustment for the year 2025.   Gasoline has a total net increase of P3.45/liter; diesel P5.00/liter and kerosene has a total net increase of P4.30/liter.

 

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:                

1 Asia Pacific 17 January 2025 Weekly Oil Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

Posted on: November 4, 2024 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 21-25, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $0.60 per barrel. The international price of gasoline and diesel have also decreased week-on-week by about $0.60 and $0.15 per barrel, respectively. On the contrary, the international price of kerosene has increased by nearly $1.00 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude futures rose as a series of airstrikes exchanged in the Middle East raised supply concerns. However, uncertainty regarding the Chinese demand outlook capped the gains in prices.
  • On October 24, Israel launched an attack on the Syrian capital, Damascus, following a strike in southern Beirut, Lebanon, a day earlier and after Iran-backed group Hezbollah fired precision missiles in clashes with Israeli troops.
  • Meanwhile, the EIA’s weekly inventory report was quite bearish, showing a 5.47 million-barrel rise in US commercial crude oil inventories, significantly higher than the 1.6-million-barrel increase reported by the API.
  • The Asian gasoline complex was lower although there was supply tightness within the region.
    • Import demand from Indonesia expected to be stable with import requirement in November being flattish on month at 10-11 million barrels.
  • The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil/diesel crack was supported on tight supply and anticipated good demand ahead of winter.
    • However, the arbitrage economics to send cargoes to the west remained unworkable.
    • Stocks of gasoil in the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region rose by nearly 1% on the week Oct. 24, and currently were at 2.217 million mt. The stocks are 26.7% higher than at the same point in 2023, when they were at 1.750 million mt.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.13 to P57.77 from P56.64 in the previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 29 October 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase of P0.20/liter for gasoline and a rise of P0.50/liter for both diesel and kerosene.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P8.75/liter and P6.55/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P3.10/liter.

___________________________

1 Asia Pacific 25 October 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

Posted on: October 16, 2024 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 30- October 4, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $0.50 per barrel. The international price of diesel and kerosene have also increased week-on-week by about $1.80 and $1.30 per barrel, respectively. On the opposite, the international price of gasoline has decreased by nearly $1.20 per barrel. 

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude futures settled higher in reaction to news that Israel is considering an attack on Iranian oil facilities.
  • President Biden on Oct. 2 spoke with G7 leaders to coordinate new sanctions and other measures to respond to Iran’s recent attack on Israel.
  • The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee overseeing OPEC+’s production pact met Oct. 2 but did not recommend any changes to current plans.
    • OPEC+ remains committed to reinstating 2.2 million b/d of voluntary cuts starting in December and will keep current production levels until then, despite concerns regarding some members’ continued inability to meet their targets
  • Global energy markets were on edge after Iran launched a new missile attack on Israel, raising fears of a major regional escalation and potential direct conflict between the two nations.
  • Gasoline remained bearish as tensions in the Middles East escalate. Regional supplies remained ample, exported from Middle East to Singapore amid closed arbitrage to the west and ongoing seasonal weakness in demand.
  • The Asian ultra-low sulfur gasoil/diesel rose on growing demand expectation. Demand is expected to improve in the near term due to the harvest season in September and October followed by winter demand.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.26 to P56.20 from P55.94 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 08 October 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.20/liter for diesel and P0.70/liter for kerosene while no movement was effected for gasoline.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of diesel stands at a net increase of P4.05/liter while gasoline remains at P6.40/liter. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P5.35/liter.

___________________________

1 Asia Pacific 04 October 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 8840-2187
LPG: 8840-2130
Fuels: 8840-5669

Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

 

Posted on: August 4, 2024 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 22-26, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by about $2.90 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased week-on-week by about $2.40, $2.20 and $2.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Crude oil futures fell on weaker US economic data, weak Chinese demand despite rate cut and unexpected contraction in South Korea’s Q2 GDP creating demand concerns in Asia.
    • On July 25, the People’s Bank of China cut the country’s one-year medium-term lending facility by 20 basis points, but this move failed to spur demand, and the sentiment remained bearish.
    • South Korea’s second-quarter gross domestic product unexpectedly contracted 0.2% on the quarter, contrasting with market expectations of a 0.1% expansion. The weakness was attributed to sluggish domestic demand.
  • The OPEC+ alliance’s biggest overproducers – Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan, agreed on July 24 to gradually reduce production by a collective 2.284 million b/d between now and September 2025 after an overproduction in H1 2024.
    • OPEC+ is also scheduled to gather virtually for its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting Aug. 1, with consensus suggesting that OPEC+ is unlikely to alter its oil output.
  • The Asian gasoline complex was firm as cargoes were still moving to Persian Gulf due to favorable margins and demand was seen stable amid lower crude prices.
    • Further support to prices came from shutdown of RFCC unit at Dalin in Taiwan’s CPC refinery.
    • Meanwhile, refineries are coming online from maintenance replenishing supplies in the region in the near term, and Indonesia’s imports of light distillates fell 13.38% on the month and 11.60% on the year to 1.877 million mt amid lower naphtha and LPG inflows.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel complex edged higher on weak crude prices while Russia is considering another ban on diesel exports. However, the complex was still weighed down by seasonal demand lull and supply surplus in the region amid unfavorable arbitrage economics.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.03 to P58.42 from P58.39 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 30 July 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.75/liter in gasoline, P0.85/liter in diesel and P0.80/liter in kerosene.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P9.60/liter and P6.85/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P0.30/liter.

___________________________

1 Asia Pacific 26 July 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: July 5, 2024 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (June 24-28, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $0.70 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased week-on-week by about $1.50, $1.00 and $0.80 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment1

  • Oil prices moved higher on escalated Red Sea tensions despite higher-than-expected US inventory data.
    • The recent escalation of Houthi attacks in Red Sea shipping and persistent cross-border attacks between Israeli and Hezbollah forces pose growing risks to regional stability and could potentially impact crude oil exports from the Middle East.
  • Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure and refineries also contributed to the rising crude prices.
  • However, these were countered by higher-than-expected US-EIA inventory data countered as the country’s crude oil inventories climbed to eight-week highs in the week ended June 21, amid weaker refinery demand and slower exports
  • For Asian gasoline complex, it strengthened on the back of a widening US-RBOB Brent crack, despite a rise in US stocks. EIA data showed gasoline inventory uptick by 2.654 million barrels on the week to 233.886 million barrels in the week ended June 21.
  • Asian gasoil/diesel complex saw the supply situation become more relaxed as arbitrage opportunities between the Persian Gulf to Europe were opened with an improved European market and the fall in freight rates.
  • Lower exports from China and South Korea in July are expected to support the market amid seasonal increase in domestic demand and low refinery runs in China.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.04 to P58.78 from P58.74 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 02 July 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase on the prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene by P0.95, P0.65 and P0.35 per liter, respectively.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of the said respective products stand at net increase of P9.25/liter, P8.40/liter and P1.75/liter, respectively.

___________________________

1 Asia Pacific 28 June 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

Other recommended reference sites:

 

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

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