Oil Monitor – Page 2 – PIP – Philippine Institute of Petroleum

Posted on: August 4, 2024 by pip_admin

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 22-26, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by about $2.90 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased week-on-week by about $2.40, $2.20 and $2.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude oil futures fell on weaker US economic data, weak Chinese demand despite rate cut and unexpected contraction in South Korea’s Q2 GDP creating demand concerns in Asia.
- On July 25, the People’s Bank of China cut the country’s one-year medium-term lending facility by 20 basis points, but this move failed to spur demand, and the sentiment remained bearish.
- South Korea’s second-quarter gross domestic product unexpectedly contracted 0.2% on the quarter, contrasting with market expectations of a 0.1% expansion. The weakness was attributed to sluggish domestic demand.
The OPEC+ alliance’s biggest overproducers – Iraq, Russia and Kazakhstan, agreed on July 24 to gradually reduce production by a collective 2.284 million b/d between now and September 2025 after an overproduction in H1 2024.
- OPEC+ is also scheduled to gather virtually for its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting Aug. 1, with consensus suggesting that OPEC+ is unlikely to alter its oil output.
The Asian gasoline complex was firm as cargoes were still moving to Persian Gulf due to favorable margins and demand was seen stable amid lower crude prices.
- Further support to prices came from shutdown of RFCC unit at Dalin in Taiwan’s CPC refinery.
- Meanwhile, refineries are coming online from maintenance replenishing supplies in the region in the near term, and Indonesia’s imports of light distillates fell 13.38% on the month and 11.60% on the year to 1.877 million mt amid lower naphtha and LPG inflows.
Asian gasoil/diesel complex edged higher on weak crude prices while Russia is considering another ban on diesel exports. However, the complex was still weighed down by seasonal demand lull and supply surplus in the region amid unfavorable arbitrage economics.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.03 to P58.42 from P58.39 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 30 July 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease of P0.75/liter in gasoline, P0.85/liter in diesel and P0.80/liter in kerosene.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P9.60/liter and P6.85/liter, respectively. On the other hand, kerosene has a total net decrease of P0.30/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 26 July 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: July 5, 2024 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (June 24-28, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $0.70 per barrel. The international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased week-on-week by about $1.50, $1.00 and $0.80 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Oil prices moved higher on escalated Red Sea tensions despite higher-than-expected US inventory data.
- The recent escalation of Houthi attacks in Red Sea shipping and persistent cross-border attacks between Israeli and Hezbollah forces pose growing risks to regional stability and could potentially impact crude oil exports from the Middle East.
Ukrainian drone attack on Russian oil infrastructure and refineries also contributed to the rising crude prices.
However, these were countered by higher-than-expected US-EIA inventory data countered as the country’s crude oil inventories climbed to eight-week highs in the week ended June 21, amid weaker refinery demand and slower exports
For Asian gasoline complex, it strengthened on the back of a widening US-RBOB Brent crack, despite a rise in US stocks. EIA data showed gasoline inventory uptick by 2.654 million barrels on the week to 233.886 million barrels in the week ended June 21.
Asian gasoil/diesel complex saw the supply situation become more relaxed as arbitrage opportunities between the Persian Gulf to Europe were opened with an improved European market and the fall in freight rates.
Lower exports from China and South Korea in July are expected to support the market amid seasonal increase in domestic demand and low refinery runs in China.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.04 to P58.78 from P58.74 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 02 July 2024, the oil companies implemented an increase on the prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene by P0.95, P0.65 and P0.35 per liter, respectively.

Year-to-date, total adjustment of the said respective products stand at net increase of P9.25/liter, P8.40/liter and P1.75/liter, respectively.

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1 Asia Pacific 28 June 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: April 2, 2024 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 25-29, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $0.20 per barrel. The international price of diesel and kerosene have also decreased by about $2.60 and $3.40 per barrel, respectively. On the contrary, the international price of gasoline has increased by nearly $0.20 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

The US Energy Information Administration data confirmed the resumption of seasonal US inventory builds.
- The US commercial crude stocks climbed 3.17 million barrels to 448.21 million barrels in the week to March 22.
The market is also watching OPEC members for any sign they may be altering their viewpoint on production quotas noting that the bloc’s Joint Monitoring Ministerial Committee is due to meet on April 3 to review the current adherence to the production agreement.
- Analysts anticipated that the existing policy of 2.2 million b/d cuts would remain status quo.
The Asian gasoline complex softened tracking the narrowing US RBOB-Brent crack spread, amid rising US stocks.
Indonesia’s April gasoline imports are expected to remain unchanged on the month and comparatively lower on the year at 11 million barrels, as healthy inventories from pre-elections stock-up will offset Eid al-Fitr demand.
Unfavorable arbitrage economics to move cargoes to Europe dampened trading sentiment and kept supply ample in the region, dampening the overall gasoil/diesel complex.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.38 to P56.29 from P55.91 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 02 April 2024, the oil companies implemented a decrease in diesel and kerosene by P0.60 and P1.05 per liter, respectively. However, gasoline prices increased by P 0.45 per liter.

Year-to-date adjustment of gasoline and diesel stand at a per liter net increase of P8.20 and P4.50, respectively.

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1 Asia Pacific 29 March 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

Other recommended reference sites:

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: March 17, 2024 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 4-8, 2024, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $1.00 per barrel. On the contrary, the international price of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have decreased by almost $1.65, $0.65, and $0.40 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

US commercial crude oil stocks climbed by 1.37 million barrels to 448.53 million barrels.
- A softer build in inventories reflects a steady demand for fuel in the world’s largest economy despite robust production levels.
China has reported a 7.1% increase on the year in its January-February total exports. The health of China’s export data broadly signals the state of global commerce and economic growth, given its position as an international manufacturing hub.
However, record growth in non-OPEC producers including the US, Brazil and Guyana, higher inventories, and high rates of purchase of Russian crude despite sanctions are contributing to an oversupplied market and putting a cap on the prices.
The Asian gasoline complex softened on continued weak import demand from Indonesia and rising supply from Middle East despite widening of US-RBOB Brent crack.
- Indonesia is expected to have a lower import demand ahead of the Eid al-Fitr celebrations in April.
Gasoline inflows into Asia from the Middle East are expected to increase in March as refineries come back from maintenance, possibly reflecting rising outflows from the Middle East into Asia. Saudi Arabia exported a total of 76,668 mt of gasoline to Singapore in the week ended Feb. 28.
For gasoil/diesel complex, it remained weak as regional gasoil supply continued to outstrip demand. The East-West arbitrage demand remained hampered by high inventory levels in the West.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.21 to P55.90 from P56.10 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 12 March 2024, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P0.50, P0.25 and P0.30, respectively, for gasoline, diesel, and kerosene.

Year-to-date adjustment of gasoline and diesel stands at a net increase of P5.45/liter and P3.80/liter, respectively. On the other hand, the net decrease in kerosene prices, year-to-date, is P0.25/liter.

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1 Asia Pacific 08 March 2024 Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

For the updated prevailing retail pump prices, please refer to this link:

https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metr…

Other recommended reference sites:

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: July 19, 2023 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 10-14, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by around $3.80/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also increased by about $5.50/bbl, $5.60/bbl and $5.20/bbl, respectively. These movements were based on the same comparative week.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Oil prices rallied this week, as market sentiment received a boost from China’s latest trade data showing a 45.3% on-year jump in its crude imports in June, suggesting healthy downstream demand and profitable refining margins.

Meanwhile, a low US Consumer Price Index report for June stirred optimism that inflation was easing, though the data alone was not expected to sway the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates at its July 26 meeting.

A drop in US dollar to its lowest value since April 2022 against a basket of currencies also supported dollar-denominated oil futures.

On the demand side, the International Energy Agency on July 13 cut its 2023 oil demand growth estimate by 220,000 b/d to 2.2 million b/d due to macroeconomic headwinds while raising its 2024 demand growth forecast by 290,000 b/d. China is expected to account for 70% of global demand growth in 2023.

Asian gasoline crack rebounded, tracking a stronger US RBOB-Brent crack, despite some easing of US domestic gasoline demand, in the recent week. Rains and flooding in the US Atlantic Coast region was said to have caused dampening demand.
Asian gasoil/diesel crack has strengthened despite of an expected jump in China’s gasoil exports in July.

o Gasoil outflows from China are expected to be around 1.2-1.5 million mt in July, higher than earlier expectations of 800,000-900,000 mt, and up from estimates in June.

In Korea, refiners are said to be holding back on some current exports, as they waited for the government update on whether retail fuel tax cuts will be extended beyond August. The tax cuts were enacted in late 2021 to temper a spike in international oil prices..

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.39 to P55.00 from P55.39 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 18 July 2023, the oil companies implemented an increase of P1.90/liter for gasoline, P2.10/liter diesel and P1.80/liter for kerosene.

These price adjustments resulted in a year-to-date net decrease of P0.85/liter for diesel and P3.70/liter for kerosene. Gasoline, on the other hand, has a net increase of P7.55/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link:
• https://www.doe.gov.ph/retail-pump-prices-metro-manila

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 14 July 2023 by S&P Global Commodity Insights

Posted on: May 16, 2023 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (May 1-5, 2023, trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $5.50/bbl. MOPS prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased per barrel by about $6.00, $6.80, and $5.70, respectively, during the reference week.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

The week’s adjustment in oil prices was largely driven by microeconomic concerns from the world’s two largest economies, i.e., the following:

a) US

The US Fed raised interest rates by another 0.25 percentage points to 5.00%-5.25%, which was widely expected. Further, while the European Central Bank decided on Thursday to slow interest rate hikes, it kept its options open on future moves as it fights stubbornly high euro zone inflation.
Barclay analyst says “The U.S. economy continues to evolve in a manner consistent with a recession commencing later this year. The manufacturing sector is contracting, consumer is struggling, there are broadening signs of cracks emerging within the labor market.”

b) China

In China, the NBS manufacturing PMI showed a surprise contraction in April, falling to 49.2 after three straight months of growth since January; the Caixin China General Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 49.5in April, from 50.0 in March.
On a positive note, transport normalization will be one pillar to support China’s oil demand growth in 2023. Data from China’s Ministry of Culture and Tourism estimated a total of 274 million domestic tourist trips were made during the week-long 2023 Labor Day holidays which ended May 3. This marked a strong 70.8% year-on-year increase and a 119.1% recovery from pre-pandemic levels.
However, the increased number is mainly reflected in domestic travel, and railway transport will divert part of oil demand. The downside risks of oil demand growth remain in international flight recovery, infrastructure expansion, real estate, trading activities and manufacturing. Platts Analytics anticipate China’s total oil demand to recover gradually from Q2 with annual demand expected to reach 15.8 million b/din 2023, 6% higher than that in 2022.

Asian gasoline crack dropped due to waning import demand from Malaysia and Indonesia amid expectations that China will likely issue additional product export quotas.

Asian gasoil crack extended losses among mixed picture of demand recovery, eroding arbitrage economics, anticipation of a second batch of product export quotas from China and a narrowing East-West EFS.

S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates China’s gasoil demand declined slightly to 4 million b/d in March, down by 0.2% on month. India’s gasoil demand remained strong in March due to favorable warm weather and increased industrial and agricultural activity.

In the US, EIA data showed US total gasoline inventories rose by 1.742 million barrels to 222.878 million barrels in the week ended April28, down 2.5% on year. Meanwhile, total US gasoline supplied, a proxy for gasoline demand, fell 893,000 barrels over the same period to 8.618 million barrels.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.37 to P55.30 from P56.67 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 09 May 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P2.20 for gasoline, P2.70 for diesel and P2.55 for Kerosene.

These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P7.05/liter and kerosene at P7.50/liter. Gasoline on the other hand, has a net increase of P3.85/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 05 May 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics

Posted on: April 26, 2023 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (April 17-21, 2023 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $2.20/bbl. MOPS prices of gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased per barrel by about $6.30, $4.00 and $2.50, respectively, during the reference week.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

The week’s increase in oil prices was largely driven by the following:

Oil prices fell this week, weighed down by concerns of another rate hike by the US Fed and prospects of weaker global economic growth. Weakening Asian refining margins prompted some refiners to consider cutting throughput.

o The Singapore refining margin was range bound during the week as gasoline cracks led the losses. Weak refining margins have prompted some export-oriented Northeast Asian refiners to consider cutting throughput rates.

Asian gasoline crack weakened, tracking a narrowing RBOB-Brent crack amid reports of a build in US gasoline inventories and weakness in US demand. Speculations around the release of additional export quotas from China also added to sentiment.

o Chinese exports are expected to rise on the back of an anticipated release of the second batch of export quota by end-April.

o The latest EIA data showed gasoline stocks built by 1.30 million barrels in the week ending April 14. Gasoline inventories on the US Atlantic Coast climbed as well by 1.3 million barrels, which helped put downward pressure on NYMEX RBOB futures.

Asian gasoil crack weakened, weighed down by speculations around a second batch of clean oil product export quotas from China, demand concerns amid macroeconomic uncertainties, and a narrowing East-West EFS.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso depreciated versus the US dollar by P0.95 to P56.01 from P55.06 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 25 April 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease of P1.40 for gasoline, P0.70 for diesel and P0.20 for Kerosene.

These resulted to a year-to-date net decrease for diesel at P3.05/liter and kerosene at P3.55/liter. Gasoline on the other hand, has a net increase of P7.55/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia-Pacific Weekly Recap 21 April 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics

Posted on: February 12, 2023 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 30-February 03, 2023 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $2.10/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by about $6.00, $7.70 and $7.80 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude oil futures fell amid concerns that elevated interest rates could weigh on global economic growth. The main upside continues to be China’s demand recovery following its
reopening.
A continued buildup in US commercial crude stocks to its highest outright level since June 2021 also added downward pressure to the markets. US crude oil inventories rose for the sixth straight week by 4.14 million barrels to 452.69 million barrels in the week ended Jan. 27, up 9.0% on year, US EIA data showed Feb. 1, due to weaker refinery demand and lower
exports.

On supply/demand fundamentals, the OPEC+ group reaffirmed the bloc’s current oil production quota in a ministerial meeting convened online briefly on Feb. 1, in line with market expectations. The main upside for global oil benchmarks continues to be China’s demand recovery following its reopening. The International Monetary Fund on Jan. 31 raised
its forecast for China’s economic growth in 2023 to 5.2%, up from 4.4% in its October forecast.

Asian gasoline crack weakened, tracking a narrower US-RBOB Brent crack spread, on the back of an inventory buildup in the US and Singapore.

On regional trade, market talks suggested China’s clean oil product exports could fall to about 3.9 million mt for February. Most of the reduction in Chinese exports is expected to be for gasoline, following a stronger-than-expected domestic demand rebound during the Lunar New Year celebrations.

On inventory, US gasoline stocks rose for a fourth straight week by 2.58million barrels to 234.60million barrels in the week ended Jan. 27, the highest since April 2022 but still down 6.2% on year. The gasoline build was centered on the US Atlantic Coast and Midwest, where stocks climbed 1.38 million barrels and 1.25 million barrels, respectively.

Asian gasoil crack weakened as receding East-West arbitrage economics weighed on sentiment. Singapore’s middle distillate stocks climbed to a 14-month high.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.19 to P54.29 from P54.48 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 07 February 2023, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in gasoline by
P2.10, diesel by P3.00 and kerosene by P2.30.

These resulted to a total net increase this year to stand at P5.10/liter for gasoline, P0.05/liter
for diesel, and P2.25/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap 3 February 2023 by S&P Global Platts Analytics

Posted on: December 16, 2022 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES ((November 29-December 2,2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $0.70/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by about $4.50, $3.60 and $2.70 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Oil futures came under increased pressure amid growing concerns over Chinese demand due to a continued climb in COVID-19 cases. Public frustration against the Chinese government’s strict zero-tolerance stance to Covid-19 flared into protests in a few major cities across the country.
- The mega cities of Guangzhou and Chongqing however, announced an easing of COVID-19 restrictions Nov 30, a day after protesters in Guangzhou clashed with riot police in a rare mass demonstration of public anger towards the government’s stringent COVID-19 controls.
Expectations of potential supply intervention from the OPEC+ group helped boost oil prices later in the week, following an earlier price slides. The OPEC+ alliance was scheduled to meet online Dec. 4, a day ahead of the EU’s sanctions banning the import of Russian crude, along with a G7 price cap. S&P Commodity Insights estimated the volume of EU imports subject to near-term bans has fallen to 2 million b/d or less.
Asian gasoline crack dropped on week of Dec. 1 Asian close, tracking losses in US RBOB-Brent crack as inventories built.
- South Korea’s domestic gasoline demand increased 0.9% on month and up 13.5% on year, Platts noted of the KNOC provisional data. On the other hand, Japan’s domestic gasoline sales edged lower by 1.2% on month, largely flat compared with a year ago METI data.
Asian gasoil/diesel crack fell on week as of Asian close on Dec. 1. The gasoil East-West EFS² widened by $3.00/mt on week to minus $60.99/mt over the same period, while soaring freight rates for clean tankers eroded arbitrage attractiveness. The EFS averaged minus $60.95/mt in November, versus an average of minus $107.64/mt in October and $67.53/mt in September.
- On the demand side, South Korea’s domestic diesel demand rose 12.5% on month and 9.1% on year in October as noted by Platts, on the back of record tax cuts by the government that cushioned the increase in retail prices at the pump.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.67 to P56.42 from P57.09 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 06 December 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in gasoline by P1.95, diesel by P1.90 and kerosene by P1.65.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P14.95/liter for gasoline, P28.00/liter for diesel, and P23.55/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

2 An exchange of futures for swaps (EFS) is a transaction negotiated privately in which a futures contract for a physical item is exchanged for a cash settled swap contract. EFS gives the market participants a chance to liquidate a swap position in an environment that is normally not very liquid

Posted on: October 5, 2022 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 19-23, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $1.80/bbl. MOPS gasoline has decreased by almost $6.40 per barrel as well as MOPS diesel and kerosene by nearly $5.40 and $5.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude oil prices were largely range-bound in the latest week as risks grew on both demand and supply sides. Oil demand outlook turned weaker on the expectations of slower global economic growth as central banks hiked interest rates to bring down inflation. The US Federal Reserve delivered a third consecutive 75-basis-point hike at the Sept. 20-21 FOMC meeting, lifting target interest rate to 3.00%-3.25%. The move caused US Dollar to rally further, with the ICE US Dollar Index surging to near 111 as of Sept. 23 Asian morning, the highest since June 2002, pressuring down dollar-denominated commodities.

Adding further downward pressure on oil prices was a 9.24-million-barrel build in US commercial oil inventories in the week ended Sept. 16, as total product demand dropped to a 10-week low, according to data from the EIA.

o Total US commercial crude stocks rose by 1.14 million barrels over the week to 430.77 million barrels, though stocks in the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a fresh 38-year low.

o The US Department of Energy announced on Sept. 19 it will sell up to 10 million barrels of oil from the SPR for November delivery. The continuous drawdown since April has left the US SPR level at its lowest since 1984.

Asian gasoline crack weakened further as the market faced a double blow from speculations around rising Chinese supplies due to a potentially larger export quota allocation and regional demand headwinds.

o China’s transportation fuel consumption during the week-long Golden Week National Day holiday at the start of October is expected to be constrained by the authorities’ strict COVID-19 controls, with residents told to avoid travelling.

o Japan’s gasoline demand is set to weaken amid the ongoing typhoon season, causing major disruptions to Japan’s transport system and businesses.

o In Indonesia, a key regional importer where gasoline-powered vehicles are the main mode of transport, is expected to trend lower following a jump in subsidized fuel prices, though the government pledged to hand out a total of 12.4 trillion rupiah in cash to 20.6 million poor families until the year-end to cushion the impact.

Gasoil/diesel supply in Asia became tightened due to ongoing maintenance of regional refineries, all else equal.

o Indonesia’s Balikpapan refinery was scheduled to undergo planned maintenance and expansion works in August for 40 days. This explains why Indonesia’s gasoil imports rose for the second consecutive month in July, surging 40.39% month on month to 287,680 mt with the higher volumes supported by firm buying interest to meet increases in domestic requirements amid post Eid-al Adha festivities as well as ahead of scheduled turnarounds.

o South Korea’s SK Innovation will carry out planned works between the end of September and the end of October at its 840,000 b/d Ulsan and 275,000 b/d Incheon refineries, which could reduce the availability of medium sulfur gasoil in the region.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.81 to P57.89 from P57.08 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 27 September 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in the price of gasoline by P1.65-P1.75, diesel by P1.25, and P1.35 for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P14.85/liter for gasoline, P29.40/liter for diesel, and P24.10/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics