Category: Oil Monitor

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 29-September 02, 2022 trading days)

MOPS gasoline has also decreased by about $9.00 per barrel as well as MOPS diesel and kerosene by nearly $5.50 and $5.30 per barrel, respectively. There was no movement on the week-on- week price of Dubai crude.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

• Crude prices reflect the weaker global demand outlook after China escalated COVID-19 curbs and US Federal Reserve officials signaled further interest rate hikes amid global recession fears. All eyes were also on the OPEC+ producers’ meeting held on Sept. 5, with potential output cuts. Ministers from Venezuela, Azerbaijan and Congo have expressed support for Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdul-Aziz bin Salman, who expressed flexibility and commitment of OPEC+ to cut crude output levels if needed.

o Demand concerns grew after the Chinese authorities imposed stricter mobility controls in several major cities to contain an outbreak of coronavirus. Most recently, the southwestern metropolis of Chengdu announced a lockdown of 21.2 million residents from Sept. 1 as it rolled out citywide mass testing in the country’s biggest shutdown since Shanghai’s 25 million residents were confined to their homes for two months earlier this year.

o In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Aug. 26 the Fed’s tightening monetary policy stance will likely remain in place “for some time”, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Aug. 30 that the Fed is committed to the “fight ahead” to bring down inflation, stoking concerns of another 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike again in September. Hawkish rate hikes are typically viewed as bearish for crude demand as they are aimed at cooling off economic growth.

• Asian gasoline cracks turned negative on Thursday for the first time since August 3, 2020 as market sentiment weakened sharply following the end of peak driving season. Major regional importers including Indonesia were also noted to have slowed down from buying activities amid ample supplies.

• Asian gasoil/diesel crack slid on the back of healthy supply in the region as refiners continued maximizing gasoil productions on still-attractive margins.

• Fresh COVID-19 mobility restrictions in major Chinese cities are now threatening to derail the country’s fuel demand recovery during the typical peak consumption season in September and October. Gasoil demand in India and Pakistan was likewise hit by heavy monsoon rainfalls that have disrupted construction and logistics activities.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.30 to P56.39 from P56.09 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 06 September 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in gasoline by P2.60, diesel by P1.55 and P1.60 for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P16.95/liter for gasoline, P36.25/liter for diesel and P31.60/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

WORLD OIL PRICES (June 27-July 01, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by about $3.45/bbl. On the contrary, MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have fallen by around $2.50 per barrel and $10.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

• Crude prices remained volatile as market sentiment wobbled between exacerbated supply tightness and looming recession fears. On the bullish side, concerns are focused on production losses in Libya and Ecuador, as well as the limited ability for OPEC+ to produce more crude oil. Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corp. was close to declare force majeure on oil exports from its main oil terminals.

o The ongoing protests and blockades in Ecuador also threaten to completely shut off the nation’s crude production in the eastern Amazon. The two countries combine to produce well more than 1 million b/d of crude. At the G7 meeting, leaders agreed to cap prices on Russian barrels including shipping, financing, and insurance but numerous questions remain unanswered such as which criteria will be used to set the maximum price.

• Asian gasoline market remained firm on peak demand driving season in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer.

o Indonesia’s light distillate imports rose 33.44% year on year to 2.153 million mt in April, latest Statistics Indonesia data showed on June 29, as inflows of 90 RON-97 RON gasoline grades surged almost 196%.

o India’s May consumption jumped 51.52% on the year and 7.84% on the month to 3.017 million mt, the highest in PPAC records dating back to 1998. Despite elevated gasoline production, some Indian oil companies were still short on gasoline and were active in purchasing cargoes in the spot market with arrival date in June and July.

o In US, summer driving demand continues to support the nation’s gasoline market, with the American Automobile Association expecting record levels of car travel over June 30-July 4.

• On Asian gasoil/diesel supply is rising as refineries continued to maximize gasoil production, keeping pace with an increase in demand. In China, the national heavy truck index, an indicator of gasoil demand, recovered by 20% on month in June on eased lockdown and improved industrial activities. In India, gasoil output rose 3.06% on month to 10.12 million mt (2.43 million b/d) in May to meet growing domestic demand, while also capturing lucrative export margins.

o The unusual move by Indian refiners to import gasoil will likely be short-lived as increased supply from refiners and moderated demand during monsoon season will accelerate
rebalances in domestic market.

o Indonesia’s gasoil imports had been elevated over February-March due to the refinery maintenance at Balongan, which was reported to have comeback online in mid-May. As such, Indonesia’s gasoil imports volumes will likely moderate amid the increased domestic production in May and June.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.56 to P54.97 from P54.41 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 05 July 2022, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in diesel by P3.00 per liter and kerosene by P3.40 per liter. No movement has been effected on the price of gasoline.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P42.90/liter for diesel and P36.35/liter for kerosene, while that of gasoline remained at P30.00/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics
 

WORLD OIL PRICES (April 4-8,2022 trading days)

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

• Prices started again to retreat after ban on Russian energy faced opposition in the European Union (EU). The fall was also supported after US EIA data released late-April 6, showing that crude stocks in the country ballooned 2.42 million barrels in the week ended April 1 to 412.37 million barrels. This came as US crude output rose 100,000 b/d to 11.8 million b/d, marking its highest level since December 2021.
  • Prices fell sharply with crude futures trading mid-day on April 7 below $100/b for the first time after March 17 as the IEA announced that member countries have agreed to release 120 million barrels of oil from storage, which includes 60 million barrels from the US, which makes the total SPR release around 240 million barrels
• Gasoline demand in Asia stayed put amid increased driving activity in the region. For instance, Indonesia has loosened travel restrictions for the Ramadan festival, Malaysia has opened its borders on April 1 for international travelers amid rising tourism demand, and gasoline demand in Vietnam was also supported by cuts to environmental protection tax rates intended to combat high fuel prices.
• The Asian gasoil/diesel market kicked off the week of April 11 with a flurry of tender activity, reflecting a strong selling interest from Asian producers with surplus barrels amid robust product cracks.
• Strong product cracks for gasoil continued to incentivize refiners in Asia to maximize its yield and channel excess barrels into the export market, further supported by the steep backwardation in the gasoil market structure discouraging the storage of barrels.

FOREX:Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.56 to P51.40 from P51.96 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 12 April 2022, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in domestic oil products. Gasoline has dropped by P1.00 per liter, diesel by P0.35 per liter, and kerosene by P3.00 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P15.00/liter for gasoline, P25.65/liter for diesel and P21.10/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 26-30, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by around US$2.00/bbl.  MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased by almost US$3.00 per barrel and US$ 2.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment

• Oil Prices finished up for the week ending July 30, 2021 and concluded a run of four consecutive positive months.

o Oil posted its fourth straight monthly gain as steady demand and tight supplies calmed concerns that a new wave of Covid-19 infections would cripple energy consumption.

o Futures in New York ended the week 2.6% higher. While cases of the virus’s delta variant have surged in recent weeks, mobility and other data point to strong demand in key economies that traders are watching. India posted the biggest gain in driving activity after restrictions were rolled back.

o Oil futures are closing out a volatile July that saw prices whipsawing as the pandemic threatened to derail the economic recovery. Crude supplies are expected to remain tight through the end of the year..

• ​​​​Overall, crude prices continued to extend its rally during the week on expectations of a weaker dollar and tighter balances stemming from better demand.
   
• The Asian gasoline market strengthened in early July 26 trading, with support from a stronger US Gasoline-Brent pushing the Asian derivative crack spread to a near three-year high.

o Gasoline demand in several major regions has returned to pre-pandemic levels amid rising road traffic data; even the jet fuel market is showing signs of improvement.

o Meanwhile in Asia, the continued delay of the announcement of China’s second round of oil product export quotas has also propped up the motor fuel complex.

o The uptick in volumes was mainly attributed to healthy regional gasoline crack spreads, which prompted Chinese refiners to export some barrels overseas. Sinochem, Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical and Sinopec each plan to export 100,000 mt, 40,000 mt and 30,000 mt of gasoline in August, respectively.

• Asian gasoil/diesel markets were largely rangebound July 26, with sentiment pulled in opposite directions as rising coronavirus infections in Southeast Asia dented the demand outlook, while spot supply from North Asia was seen to be curtailed for August.

o The upsurge in COVID-19 infections has prompted several countries to announce extensions to coronavirus-related lockdowns and extend restrictions to cover wider areas, moves that were widely expected to dent overall gasoil demand.

• Even as Asia braces for deepening demand destruction for gasoil/diesel, the market has strengthened during the week due to thin supply from North Asia, offsetting sluggish demand.

o China’s oil companies plan to further slash exports of key oil products to a six-year low of 1.07 million mt in August due to limited export quota availability.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.02 to P50.33 from P50.31 previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 03 August 2021, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products, i.e.  P1.05 per liter for gasoline, P0.75-P0.80 per liter for diesel and P0.75 per liter for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P13.90/liter for gasoline, P11.10/liter for diesel and P9.45/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

WORLD OIL PRICES (June 21-25, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by around US$1.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline and diesel have also increased by almost US$2.30 and US$0.95 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Adjustment

• Prices of Oil climbed to their highest since October 2018 on expectations that demand growth will exceed supply, and OPEC+ will be careful in returning more crude to the market from August.
• The markets are in strong anticipation for the OPEC+ to meet on July 1 to discuss the further easing of their output cuts starting August. Most analysts feel the producer group has ample space to boost supply without disrupting the drawdown in oil stocks, given the greatly improved demand outlook.
  • The key factors OPEC+ reportedly consider are the strong demand growth in the US, Europe, and China, bolstered by vaccine rollouts and reopening economies.
  • Reports disclosed that OPEC+ is currently holding crude production at 6.2 million b/d (MMB/D), below October 2018 levels and intends to taper this output cut to 5.76 MMB/D in July.
• The prospect on the lifting of Iran sanctions, which was expected to add up supply to the market has dimmed, reportedly due to issues in relation to Tehran’s compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.
• Crude oil futures settled higher as the market eyed increasingly bullish supply and demand outlooks despite the rapidly spreading coronavirus delta variant.
• Demand recovery, buoyed by the decline in the number of COVID -19 cases and an uptick in vaccination, has boosted the market’s ability to absorb additional supplies.
  • Market analysts noted that even with the increased output, the oil market could remain tight in the near-term owing to the increased travel and strong economic growth in the US and Europe.
• The Asian gasoline market ended the week slightly firmer, lifted by a stronger US- RBOB crack¹, which went on to record a 10 -session high during Asian trade hours.
  • The US stock draw comes as total product supplied for gasoline climbed to a four-week-high 9.44 MMB/D, testing highs last seen in February 2020 prior to the first wave of pandemic lockdowns.
  • Gasoline cracks also moved upwards with ongoing refinery outages that are expected to impact gasoline. 
• Asian gasoil/diesel market fundamentals were largely unchanged, with participants continuing to evaluate the demand-supply situation.
  • The Asian gasoil complex was largely steady from the previous session amid an absence of fresh price signals after a rough trajectory earlier in the week saw the front month structure flip from backwardation ² to contango³.
  • Some participants foresee a bullish market on hopes that narrowing supply balances would inject some strength, while others anticipate the market values reflecting the lackluster demand in the region.

¹ Crack – is an industry term for breaking apart crude oil into the component products, including gases like propane, heating fuel, gasoline, light distillates, like jet fuel, intermediate distillates, like diesel fuel, and heavy distillates, like grease.
² Backwardation – is when the current price, or spot price, of an underlying asset is higher than prices trading inthe futures market.
³ Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.57 to P48.71 from P48.13 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 29 June 2021, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products. Gasoline has increased by P1.00 per liter, P0.65 per liter for diesel and P0.70 per liter for kerosene.
These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P11.75/liter for gasoline, P9.90/liter for diesel and P8.40/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

WORLD OIL PRICES (April 19-23, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$1.00/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased: gasoline by around US$1.40 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$1.00 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

• The sour crude market showed signs of cooling amid rising concerns over India’s worsening COVID-19 situation, as the country’s oil demand is hit by second wave of infections and restriction measures. However, second half recovery remains in sight amid widening vaccination rollout.
  • S&P Global Platts Analytics has lowered India’s oil demand growth forecast to 400,000 b/d in 2021 (versus 440,000 b/d last month), with 2021 demand to remain below 2019 levels.
  • The main reasons behind the mild downward revision were: 1) the government of India has no intention to repeat last year’s strict nationwide lockdown and 2) India reportedly has a substantial vaccine production capacity that allows it to administer 130 million shots so far, or about 10% of the total population.
  • Thus, the availability of vaccines will likely lead the government to defer from tough suppression measures, which is positive for oil demand.
• On supply above OPEC+, the US oil production level of 12.8 million b/d (MMB/D) in December 2019 is not expected to be achieved again before late-2023.
  • The severe reduction in drilling and completion activity due to the pandemic coupled with capital discipline is requiring four years for production to reach pre-COVID-19 levels.
  • Longer term production growth (beyond 2023) is dependent on several factors including global demand, well-level break-evens, capital discipline, and shale rock quality.
  • Forecast is predicted at $49/b WTI (constant dollars); variations in prices will result in changes in predictions.​
• For gasoline in Asia, reports disclosed of strengthened gasoline market toward the end of the trading week with the increasing Dubai-gasoline crack spreads amid support for fundamentals from fresh buy tenders.
  • Gasoline markets were sustained by fresh demand from Indonesia. Pertamina bought six parcels of 200,000 barrels each for delivery over May and June via tender while also seeking an additional 350,000 barrels of prompt deliveries for end-April/early-May.
  • Prices showed no sign of COVID-related demand concerns from rising infection numbers in India and Japan.​
• Gasoil/diesel cracks inched higher despite the re-emergence of COVID-related demand fears. The Singapore gasoil vs. Dubai crack reached a seven-week high of $6.16 per barrel.
  • The main concern centered on India, where daily COVID infections have surged to 300,000 cases, about 200% higher than the peak during 2020 that lead to overloaded health care system sand localized lockdowns in some areas.
  • Indian gasoil demand had been on a strong recovery track, back to 1.73 MMB/D or 97% of 2019 levels in 1Q 2021. The second quarter is usually a strong period for agricultural gasoil demand, which should see a limited impact as lockdown measures are so far confined to cities.
  • While the country’s gasoil demand is likely to deteriorate further from the 3% month-on-month decline in first half of April, the government is not repeating last year’s strict national-level lockdown. Thus, Platts Analytics conclude that a repeat of last year’s sharp demand contraction is not expected.​

Other recommended reference sites:
    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 27 April 2021, the oil companies implemented the price increase in domestic oil products. Gasoline has increased by P0.45 per liter, diesel by P0.35 per liter and kerosene by P0.65 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at total net increase of P7.60/liter for gasoline, P5.70/liter for diesel and P4.95/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph