Oil Monitor – Page 2 – PIP – Philippine Institute of Petroleum

Posted on: December 16, 2022 by pip_admin

WORLD OIL PRICES ((November 29-December 2,2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by almost $0.70/bbl. MOPS gasoline, diesel and kerosene have also decreased by about $4.50, $3.60 and $2.70 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Oil futures came under increased pressure amid growing concerns over Chinese demand due to a continued climb in COVID-19 cases. Public frustration against the Chinese government’s strict zero-tolerance stance to Covid-19 flared into protests in a few major cities across the country.
- The mega cities of Guangzhou and Chongqing however, announced an easing of COVID-19 restrictions Nov 30, a day after protesters in Guangzhou clashed with riot police in a rare mass demonstration of public anger towards the government’s stringent COVID-19 controls.
Expectations of potential supply intervention from the OPEC+ group helped boost oil prices later in the week, following an earlier price slides. The OPEC+ alliance was scheduled to meet online Dec. 4, a day ahead of the EU’s sanctions banning the import of Russian crude, along with a G7 price cap. S&P Commodity Insights estimated the volume of EU imports subject to near-term bans has fallen to 2 million b/d or less.
Asian gasoline crack dropped on week of Dec. 1 Asian close, tracking losses in US RBOB-Brent crack as inventories built.
- South Korea’s domestic gasoline demand increased 0.9% on month and up 13.5% on year, Platts noted of the KNOC provisional data. On the other hand, Japan’s domestic gasoline sales edged lower by 1.2% on month, largely flat compared with a year ago METI data.
Asian gasoil/diesel crack fell on week as of Asian close on Dec. 1. The gasoil East-West EFS² widened by $3.00/mt on week to minus $60.99/mt over the same period, while soaring freight rates for clean tankers eroded arbitrage attractiveness. The EFS averaged minus $60.95/mt in November, versus an average of minus $107.64/mt in October and $67.53/mt in September.
- On the demand side, South Korea’s domestic diesel demand rose 12.5% on month and 9.1% on year in October as noted by Platts, on the back of record tax cuts by the government that cushioned the increase in retail prices at the pump.

FOREX: The week-on-week average of Philippine peso appreciated versus the US dollar by P0.67 to P56.42 from P57.09 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 06 December 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in gasoline by P1.95, diesel by P1.90 and kerosene by P1.65.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P14.95/liter for gasoline, P28.00/liter for diesel, and P23.55/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

2 An exchange of futures for swaps (EFS) is a transaction negotiated privately in which a futures contract for a physical item is exchanged for a cash settled swap contract. EFS gives the market participants a chance to liquidate a swap position in an environment that is normally not very liquid

Posted on: October 5, 2022 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 19-23, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has decreased by around $1.80/bbl. MOPS gasoline has decreased by almost $6.40 per barrel as well as MOPS diesel and kerosene by nearly $5.40 and $5.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude oil prices were largely range-bound in the latest week as risks grew on both demand and supply sides. Oil demand outlook turned weaker on the expectations of slower global economic growth as central banks hiked interest rates to bring down inflation. The US Federal Reserve delivered a third consecutive 75-basis-point hike at the Sept. 20-21 FOMC meeting, lifting target interest rate to 3.00%-3.25%. The move caused US Dollar to rally further, with the ICE US Dollar Index surging to near 111 as of Sept. 23 Asian morning, the highest since June 2002, pressuring down dollar-denominated commodities.

Adding further downward pressure on oil prices was a 9.24-million-barrel build in US commercial oil inventories in the week ended Sept. 16, as total product demand dropped to a 10-week low, according to data from the EIA.

o Total US commercial crude stocks rose by 1.14 million barrels over the week to 430.77 million barrels, though stocks in the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell to a fresh 38-year low.

o The US Department of Energy announced on Sept. 19 it will sell up to 10 million barrels of oil from the SPR for November delivery. The continuous drawdown since April has left the US SPR level at its lowest since 1984.

Asian gasoline crack weakened further as the market faced a double blow from speculations around rising Chinese supplies due to a potentially larger export quota allocation and regional demand headwinds.

o China’s transportation fuel consumption during the week-long Golden Week National Day holiday at the start of October is expected to be constrained by the authorities’ strict COVID-19 controls, with residents told to avoid travelling.

o Japan’s gasoline demand is set to weaken amid the ongoing typhoon season, causing major disruptions to Japan’s transport system and businesses.

o In Indonesia, a key regional importer where gasoline-powered vehicles are the main mode of transport, is expected to trend lower following a jump in subsidized fuel prices, though the government pledged to hand out a total of 12.4 trillion rupiah in cash to 20.6 million poor families until the year-end to cushion the impact.

Gasoil/diesel supply in Asia became tightened due to ongoing maintenance of regional refineries, all else equal.

o Indonesia’s Balikpapan refinery was scheduled to undergo planned maintenance and expansion works in August for 40 days. This explains why Indonesia’s gasoil imports rose for the second consecutive month in July, surging 40.39% month on month to 287,680 mt with the higher volumes supported by firm buying interest to meet increases in domestic requirements amid post Eid-al Adha festivities as well as ahead of scheduled turnarounds.

o South Korea’s SK Innovation will carry out planned works between the end of September and the end of October at its 840,000 b/d Ulsan and 275,000 b/d Incheon refineries, which could reduce the availability of medium sulfur gasoil in the region.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.81 to P57.89 from P57.08 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 27 September 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in the price of gasoline by P1.65-P1.75, diesel by P1.25, and P1.35 for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P14.85/liter for gasoline, P29.40/liter for diesel, and P24.10/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

Posted on: September 14, 2022 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (August 29-September 02, 2022 trading days)

MOPS gasoline has also decreased by about $9.00 per barrel as well as MOPS diesel and kerosene by nearly $5.50 and $5.30 per barrel, respectively. There was no movement on the week-on- week price of Dubai crude.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude prices reflect the weaker global demand outlook after China escalated COVID-19 curbs and US Federal Reserve officials signaled further interest rate hikes amid global recession fears. All eyes were also on the OPEC+ producers’ meeting held on Sept. 5, with potential output cuts. Ministers from Venezuela, Azerbaijan and Congo have expressed support for Saudi Arabian energy minister Prince Abdul-Aziz bin Salman, who expressed flexibility and commitment of OPEC+ to cut crude output levels if needed.

o Demand concerns grew after the Chinese authorities imposed stricter mobility controls in several major cities to contain an outbreak of coronavirus. Most recently, the southwestern metropolis of Chengdu announced a lockdown of 21.2 million residents from Sept. 1 as it rolled out citywide mass testing in the country’s biggest shutdown since Shanghai’s 25 million residents were confined to their homes for two months earlier this year.

o In the US, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Aug. 26 the Fed’s tightening monetary policy stance will likely remain in place “for some time”, while Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said Aug. 30 that the Fed is committed to the “fight ahead” to bring down inflation, stoking concerns of another 0.75 percentage point interest rate hike again in September. Hawkish rate hikes are typically viewed as bearish for crude demand as they are aimed at cooling off economic growth.

Asian gasoline cracks turned negative on Thursday for the first time since August 3, 2020 as market sentiment weakened sharply following the end of peak driving season. Major regional importers including Indonesia were also noted to have slowed down from buying activities amid ample supplies.

Asian gasoil/diesel crack slid on the back of healthy supply in the region as refiners continued maximizing gasoil productions on still-attractive margins.

Fresh COVID-19 mobility restrictions in major Chinese cities are now threatening to derail the country’s fuel demand recovery during the typical peak consumption season in September and October. Gasoil demand in India and Pakistan was likewise hit by heavy monsoon rainfalls that have disrupted construction and logistics activities.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.30 to P56.39 from P56.09 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 06 September 2022, the oil companies implemented a per liter decrease in gasoline by P2.60, diesel by P1.55 and P1.60 for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date total adjustments to stand at a net increase of P16.95/liter for gasoline, P36.25/liter for diesel and P31.60/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

Posted on: July 7, 2022 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (June 27-July 01, 2022 trading days)

The week-on-week price of Dubai crude has increased by about $3.45/bbl. On the contrary, MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have fallen by around $2.50 per barrel and $10.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude prices remained volatile as market sentiment wobbled between exacerbated supply tightness and looming recession fears. On the bullish side, concerns are focused on production losses in Libya and Ecuador, as well as the limited ability for OPEC+ to produce more crude oil. Libya’s state-owned National Oil Corp. was close to declare force majeure on oil exports from its main oil terminals.

o The ongoing protests and blockades in Ecuador also threaten to completely shut off the nation’s crude production in the eastern Amazon. The two countries combine to produce well more than 1 million b/d of crude. At the G7 meeting, leaders agreed to cap prices on Russian barrels including shipping, financing, and insurance but numerous questions remain unanswered such as which criteria will be used to set the maximum price.

Asian gasoline market remained firm on peak demand driving season in the Northern Hemisphere during the summer.

o Indonesia’s light distillate imports rose 33.44% year on year to 2.153 million mt in April, latest Statistics Indonesia data showed on June 29, as inflows of 90 RON-97 RON gasoline grades surged almost 196%.

o India’s May consumption jumped 51.52% on the year and 7.84% on the month to 3.017 million mt, the highest in PPAC records dating back to 1998. Despite elevated gasoline production, some Indian oil companies were still short on gasoline and were active in purchasing cargoes in the spot market with arrival date in June and July.

o In US, summer driving demand continues to support the nation’s gasoline market, with the American Automobile Association expecting record levels of car travel over June 30-July 4.

On Asian gasoil/diesel supply is rising as refineries continued to maximize gasoil production, keeping pace with an increase in demand. In China, the national heavy truck index, an indicator of gasoil demand, recovered by 20% on month in June on eased lockdown and improved industrial activities. In India, gasoil output rose 3.06% on month to 10.12 million mt (2.43 million b/d) in May to meet growing domestic demand, while also capturing lucrative export margins.

o The unusual move by Indian refiners to import gasoil will likely be short-lived as increased supply from refiners and moderated demand during monsoon season will accelerate
rebalances in domestic market.

o Indonesia’s gasoil imports had been elevated over February-March due to the refinery maintenance at Balongan, which was reported to have comeback online in mid-May. As such, Indonesia’s gasoil imports volumes will likely moderate amid the increased domestic production in May and June.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.56 to P54.97 from P54.41 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 05 July 2022, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in diesel by P3.00 per liter and kerosene by P3.40 per liter. No movement has been effected on the price of gasoline.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P42.90/liter for diesel and P36.35/liter for kerosene, while that of gasoline remained at P30.00/liter.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

Posted on: April 18, 2022 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (April 4-8,2022 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by roughly US$6.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have both dropped by about US$2.00 per barrel and US$ 0.40 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Prices started again to retreat after ban on Russian energy faced opposition in the European Union (EU). The fall was also supported after US EIA data released late-April 6, showing that crude stocks in the country ballooned 2.42 million barrels in the week ended April 1 to 412.37 million barrels. This came as US crude output rose 100,000 b/d to 11.8 million b/d, marking its highest level since December 2021.
- Prices fell sharply with crude futures trading mid-day on April 7 below $100/b for the first time after March 17 as the IEA announced that member countries have agreed to release 120 million barrels of oil from storage, which includes 60 million barrels from the US, which makes the total SPR release around 240 million barrels
Gasoline demand in Asia stayed put amid increased driving activity in the region. For instance, Indonesia has loosened travel restrictions for the Ramadan festival, Malaysia has opened its borders on April 1 for international travelers amid rising tourism demand, and gasoline demand in Vietnam was also supported by cuts to environmental protection tax rates intended to combat high fuel prices.
The Asian gasoil/diesel market kicked off the week of April 11 with a flurry of tender activity, reflecting a strong selling interest from Asian producers with surplus barrels amid robust product cracks.
Strong product cracks for gasoil continued to incentivize refiners in Asia to maximize its yield and channel excess barrels into the export market, further supported by the steep backwardation in the gasoil market structure discouraging the storage of barrels.

FOREX:Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.56 to P51.40 from P51.96 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 12 April 2022, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in domestic oil products. Gasoline has dropped by P1.00 per liter, diesel by P0.35 per liter, and kerosene by P3.00 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P15.00/liter for gasoline, P25.65/liter for diesel and P21.10/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

Posted on: April 6, 2022 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 28-April 1,2022 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by roughly US$ 4.50/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have both dropped by about US$6.50 per barrel and US$ 5.30 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment¹

Crude prices slid earlier this week as the Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met in Turkey to discuss cease fire agreement on March 28. Russia promised to cut down heavily on military near Kyiv while Ukraine proposed a neutral stance on security guarantees. However, talks failed to materialize and crude prices surged in response.
- However, announcement by Biden administration to release 180 million barrels over 6-month period or 1 million b/d of oil from strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) caused crude prices to slump by more than$5/band even overshadowed bullish US inventory data and stalled progress on Russia-Ukraine peace talks.
- OPEC+ in its meeting on March 31 decided to stick to scheduled production increase of 432,000 b/d for May, in line with market expectations and leaving little impact to oil markets.
Asia gasoline market slipped further this week with cracking falling by $2.61/b on week to $14.15/b on March 31 Asian close as markets see higher exports from China and India. According to market sources, China is expected to export about 500,000-700,000 mt of gasoline in April as domestic demand weakens on re-imposition of lockdowns in several cities including Shanghai.
- S&P Global Commodity Insights has lowered China’s gasoline demand by 400,000 b/d in March and 250,000 b/d in April due to renewed restrictions. Indian sellers were also heard increasing exports in April from March.
- Upcoming Ramadan and higher driving season would further support higher driving activity and gasoline demand.
Given the high dependency of EU on Russian diesel, that receives roughly 0.7 million b/d of diesel from Russia, the gasoil market reacted strongly last week on news on potential ban by EU of Russian oil imports. However, prices fell precipitously as Russian diesel continues to flow into Europe with Asian gasoil cracks tumbling by $5.19/b on week $32.57 on March 31 Asian close.
- With shortage concerns have subsided, the tighter fundamentals however, still remain at play. Demand remains strong as economies continue to live with virus while regional supply remains tight.

FOREX:Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.39 to P51.96 from P52.35 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 05 April 2022, the oil companies implemented a price decrease in domestic oil products. Gasoline has dropped by P2.30-P2.50 per liter, diesel by P1.85-P2.00 per liter, and kerosene by P1.65 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P16.00/liter for gasoline, P26.00/liter for diesel and P24.10/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______
¹ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap by S & P Global Platts Analytics

Posted on: January 6, 2022 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (December 27-31, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$4.75/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased: gasoline by around US$ 4.60 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$ 5.60 per barrel.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment

Oil is lower in the Asian session, with volatile price movements in the final sessions of the year likely attributable to Covid-19 concerns. Analysts foresee easing prices in the first quarter of the year behind expectation of modest inventory build, but will likely rise once lockdowns due to the Omicron variant of Covid-19 cease or become less frequent as the winter ends.
Crude prices remained under pressure as renewed omicron concerns pervaded the market. The fast-spreading variant triggered several countries to make tighter measures and raised concerns of lockdowns.
Asian gasoline complex remained healthy with omicron impact still not visibly noted in the mobility metrics tracked by Apple that continue to remain robust across all Asian nations.

In the Asian gasoil/diesel market, fundamentals remained strong even as regional supply length increased due to closed East-West arbitrage lanes and higher gasoil exports from China this month.

Singapore’s gasoil exports fell 71.92% week on week to 107,731mt over Dec. 23-29. Outflows were highest to Indonesia at 39,066 mt, followed by Myanmar and Malaysia at 35,161 mt and 17,190 mt, respectively.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.53 to P50.54 from P50.01 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The domestic price increases for the week were attributed by the week-on-week increase in MOPS. The depreciation of Peso also added to the impact of the volatile MOPS.

Effective 04 January 2022, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products. Both gasoline and kerosene have increased by P1.85 per liter while diesel has increased by P2.40 per liter.

These are the first price adjustment for the year. In 2021, prices had a total net increase of P17.65/liter for gasoline, P14.30/liter for diesel and P11.54/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: October 25, 2021 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 11-15, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$3.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased by nearly US$5.25 per barrel and around US$ 3.80 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment

Following US DOE’s announcement of not releasing additional crude stocks from its Strategic Reserve, the oil market again shifted its focus on tight supply and improving oil demand. The improving COVID-19 situation, easing of mobility restrictions and re-opening of borders by many countries fueled the prospects of higher oil demand.
Gas to oil switching from utilities and industrial sectors amid a broader rally in the energy commodities space also continues to boost crude oil demand.
Larger than expected build in US crude oil stocks of 6.09 million barrels to 426.98 million barrels for the week ending Oct.14 failed to weigh on market sentiment. Thus, crude oil prices continued the uptrend with US benchmark-WTI prices breached $80/bbl for the first time since 2014 and Europe’s ICE Brent front month futures rose to $84/b on Oct.14 Asian close.
Asian gasoline fundamental continues to tighten on uptick in regional demand amid ongoing supply tightness. Declining coronavirus cases, higher vaccination rates and upcoming string of festivals continue to propel Indian gasoline demand while re-opening of borders and resumption of interstate travel in Thailand and Malaysia, respectively, added to bullish market sentiment.

o Lower gasoline exports from China that are likely to persist through Q4 continues to tighten the Asian gasoline market.

&ZeroWidthSpace;&ZeroWidthSpace;&ZeroWidthSpace;&ZeroWidthSpace;Supply squeeze amid robust arbitrage economics to send gasoil/diesel barrels to the West continue to support low sulphur gasoil market while medium sulphur grade sees steady recovery from Southeast Asia.

o Market estimates though see China’s October gasoil exports are likely to fall 47% month on month on reduced export quotas and strong domestic market.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.01 to P50.70 from P50.69 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 19 October 2021, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products, i.e. P1.80 per liter for gasoline, P1.40-P1.50 per liter for diesel and P1.30 per liter for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P19.65/liter for gasoline, P18.00/liter for diesel and P15.49/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: August 4, 2021 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 26-30, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by around US$2.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased by almost US$3.00 per barrel and US$ 2.00 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Price Adjustment

Oil Prices finished up for the week ending July 30, 2021 and concluded a run of four consecutive positive months.

o Oil posted its fourth straight monthly gain as steady demand and tight supplies calmed concerns that a new wave of Covid-19 infections would cripple energy consumption.

o Futures in New York ended the week 2.6% higher. While cases of the virus’s delta variant have surged in recent weeks, mobility and other data point to strong demand in key economies that traders are watching. India posted the biggest gain in driving activity after restrictions were rolled back.

o Oil futures are closing out a volatile July that saw prices whipsawing as the pandemic threatened to derail the economic recovery. Crude supplies are expected to remain tight through the end of the year..

&ZeroWidthSpace;&ZeroWidthSpace;&ZeroWidthSpace;&ZeroWidthSpace;Overall, crude prices continued to extend its rally during the week on expectations of a weaker dollar and tighter balances stemming from better demand.
The Asian gasoline market strengthened in early July 26 trading, with support from a stronger US Gasoline-Brent pushing the Asian derivative crack spread to a near three-year high.

o Gasoline demand in several major regions has returned to pre-pandemic levels amid rising road traffic data; even the jet fuel market is showing signs of improvement.

o Meanwhile in Asia, the continued delay of the announcement of China’s second round of oil product export quotas has also propped up the motor fuel complex.

o The uptick in volumes was mainly attributed to healthy regional gasoline crack spreads, which prompted Chinese refiners to export some barrels overseas. Sinochem, Zhejiang Petroleum & Chemical and Sinopec each plan to export 100,000 mt, 40,000 mt and 30,000 mt of gasoline in August, respectively.

Asian gasoil/diesel markets were largely rangebound July 26, with sentiment pulled in opposite directions as rising coronavirus infections in Southeast Asia dented the demand outlook, while spot supply from North Asia was seen to be curtailed for August.

o The upsurge in COVID-19 infections has prompted several countries to announce extensions to coronavirus-related lockdowns and extend restrictions to cover wider areas, moves that were widely expected to dent overall gasoil demand.

Even as Asia braces for deepening demand destruction for gasoil/diesel, the market has strengthened during the week due to thin supply from North Asia, offsetting sluggish demand.

o China’s oil companies plan to further slash exports of key oil products to a six-year low of 1.07 million mt in August due to limited export quota availability.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.02 to P50.33 from P50.31 previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 03 August 2021, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products, i.e. P1.05 per liter for gasoline, P0.75-P0.80 per liter for diesel and P0.75 per liter for kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P13.90/liter for gasoline, P11.10/liter for diesel and P9.45/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: July 5, 2021 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (June 21-25, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by around US$1.00/bbl. MOPS gasoline and diesel have also increased by almost US$2.30 and US$0.95 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Adjustment

Prices of Oil climbed to their highest since October 2018 on expectations that demand growth will exceed supply, and OPEC+ will be careful in returning more crude to the market from August.
The markets are in strong anticipation for the OPEC+ to meet on July 1 to discuss the further easing of their output cuts starting August. Most analysts feel the producer group has ample space to boost supply without disrupting the drawdown in oil stocks, given the greatly improved demand outlook.
- The key factors OPEC+ reportedly consider are the strong demand growth in the US, Europe, and China, bolstered by vaccine rollouts and reopening economies.
- Reports disclosed that OPEC+ is currently holding crude production at 6.2 million b/d (MMB/D), below October 2018 levels and intends to taper this output cut to 5.76 MMB/D in July.
The prospect on the lifting of Iran sanctions, which was expected to add up supply to the market has dimmed, reportedly due to issues in relation to Tehran’s compliance with the 2015 nuclear deal.
Crude oil futures settled higher as the market eyed increasingly bullish supply and demand outlooks despite the rapidly spreading coronavirus delta variant.
Demand recovery, buoyed by the decline in the number of COVID -19 cases and an uptick in vaccination, has boosted the market’s ability to absorb additional supplies.
- Market analysts noted that even with the increased output, the oil market could remain tight in the near-term owing to the increased travel and strong economic growth in the US and Europe.
The Asian gasoline market ended the week slightly firmer, lifted by a stronger US- RBOB crack¹, which went on to record a 10 -session high during Asian trade hours.
- The US stock draw comes as total product supplied for gasoline climbed to a four-week-high 9.44 MMB/D, testing highs last seen in February 2020 prior to the first wave of pandemic lockdowns.
- Gasoline cracks also moved upwards with ongoing refinery outages that are expected to impact gasoline.
Asian gasoil/diesel market fundamentals were largely unchanged, with participants continuing to evaluate the demand-supply situation.
- The Asian gasoil complex was largely steady from the previous session amid an absence of fresh price signals after a rough trajectory earlier in the week saw the front month structure flip from backwardation ² to contango³.
- Some participants foresee a bullish market on hopes that narrowing supply balances would inject some strength, while others anticipate the market values reflecting the lackluster demand in the region.

¹ Crack – is an industry term for breaking apart crude oil into the component products, including gases like propane, heating fuel, gasoline, light distillates, like jet fuel, intermediate distillates, like diesel fuel, and heavy distillates, like grease.
² Backwardation – is when the current price, or spot price, of an underlying asset is higher than prices trading inthe futures market.
³ Contango is a situation where the futures price of a commodity is higher than the spot price.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.57 to P48.71 from P48.13 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 29 June 2021, the oil companies implemented a price increase in domestic oil products. Gasoline has increased by P1.00 per liter, P0.65 per liter for diesel and P0.70 per liter for kerosene.
These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a total net increase of P11.75/liter for gasoline, P9.90/liter for diesel and P8.40/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph