Oil Monitor – Page 4 – PIP – Philippine Institute of Petroleum

Posted on: March 15, 2021 by pip_admin

WORLD OIL PRICES (March 1-5, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$0.20/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also decreased: gasoline by around US$0.25 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$1.30 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ alliance announced a rollover of production cuts after its meeting on March 4, contrary to market expectations of easing output cuts amid steady global demand recovery. The announcement, sparked bullish sentiment in the Middle East crude markets.

The OPEC+ alliance, which controls about half of the world’s production capacity, will mostly maintain its quotas, with Russia allowed a 130,000 b/d increase and Kazakhstan a 20,000 b/d rise, while Saudi Arabia said it would continue implementing its 1 million b/d (MMB/D) voluntary cut.
- It means the group will keep about 8 MMB/D of crude production, or roughly 8% of pre-pandemic supply, off the market for another month.
- Economic uncertainty prompted the producer group to maintain its cuts instead of unleashing production, with many potential pitfalls ahead, including an uneven vaccine rollout and stringent lockdown measures that are a damper on oil demand.
- The OPEC+ decision to keep back April supply will clearly trigger tighter markets, as April loaders will be needed for increased summer refinery runs.
- The alliance will meet next April 1 to decide on May output levels.

Platts Analytics forecast global oil demand to grow by 250,000 b/d in April over March, before surging 1.9 MMB/D higher in May and another 3.3 MMB/D in June.

Gasoline in Asia softhened as cargoes were being spotted flowing out of Asia.
- Industry sources have noted the opening of the arbitrage route for gasoline cargoes to be shipped to West Africa, as the East-West spread(1) dropped sharply since the Winter Storm Uri in late-February; thus had sharply strengthened the West gasoline complex.
- Also, Japan’s largest refiner ENEOS said that it only intends to restart its 145,000 b/d Sendai refinery in northeast Japan in the first half of April, which had previously been suspended due to the strong earthquake offshore Fukushima late Feb. 13.

Analysts see the narrowing day-by-day of the backwardation(2) in the gasoil (diesel) complex, resulting to growing supply length in the Asian gasoil market that is weighing on market sentiment.
- Higher gasoil exports from China over March was seen to have partly attributed to the gasoil market softening as Chinese refineries are reportedly planning to boost gasoil exports in March to about 2.3 million MT in a bid to offset inventory pressure.
  - Gasoil stock levels in china were notably high due to high throughput in February and weak consumption over the Lunar New Year period.
  - The four key state-owned oil refineries’ utilization was at a sevenmonth high of 82.8% in February while private refineries kept their runs stable from January.
  - The country’s COVID-19 control measures also led to lower consumption and higher exports.

FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.06 to P48.58 from P48.64 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The oil companies implemented the price decrease effective today, 09 March 2021. Gasoline has decreased by P0.10 per liter, P0.35 per liter for diesel and kerosene by P0.55 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P6.10/liter for gasoline, P5.35/liter for diesel and P4.50/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

_______

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______

1 East-West spread is the measure between European and Asian gasoline prices
2 Backwardation – is when the futures price is below the expected future spot price

Posted on: February 17, 2021 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (February 8-12, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by almost US$3.00/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also increased by around US$2.30 and US$3.70 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Adjustment

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its Feb. 11 Oil Market Report pointed to a tightening oil market this year, despite lowering its estimate of the recovery in global oil demand and seeing improving non-OPEC supply growth.
- The IEA predicts global oil demand will grow by 5.4 million b/d (MMB/D) in 2021 to reach 96.4 MMB/D, noting this would be around 60% of the volume lost to the pandemic in 2020.
- This is the fourth straight month the IEA has lowered its demand outlook given the challenges the world has, brought about by COVID-19. IEA however could see optimism in the second half of the year.

On prices, crude oil edged higher with investors expecting stronger demand for oil in Q2 amid the accelerating global vaccination program while compliance with agreed OPEC+ production cuts seemed to be holding..
- Some analysts thought $60/bbl level could not be reached until a couple years down the road, but “the key whether the crude price rally continues is if we don’t see a spike in COVID-19 cases and as restrictive measures are eased” a market analyst noted.
- But according to Platts Analytics, energy producers remain skeptical of the recent uptrend in crude prices, with retail investors also expecting prices to correct downward in the near term.

For gasoline, while prices reached about US$65/bbl early in the week, the Asian gasoline market softened as the week ended, ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. Reports disclosed signs of weakening fundamentals as well as a retreat in the US gasoline-Brent crack exerted downside pressure on the motor fuel complex.
- The weaker fundamentals were reportedly led by more spot supply, with India’s state-run Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd., or MRPL, having emerged to offer 35,000 MT of 95 RON gasoline for loading March 15-17 from New Mangalore in a tender that closes on Feb. 17.
- Indian gasoline demand, which according to Platts had helped support the overall complex through December 2020 and early January, also showed signs of a slowdown, as domestic gasoline consumption in whole month January fall 3.54% (89,000 MT) vis-à-vis December 2020.
- Also exerting downside pressure was a weakening in the US gasoline-Brent crack due to latest data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) which showed gasoline stocks climbing 4.3 million barrels the week ended Feb. 5.
- The inventory uptick was just shy of the 4.8 million barrels estimated by the American Petroleum Institute and far higher than the 2.7 million barrels anticipated by analysts surveyed by Platts.

Asian gasoil (diesel) market was reported steady with thinning supply and firm demand providing support to the complex and keeping it in a backwardated¹ structure.
- Sentiment in the Asian gasoil market was also supported by reports that ExxonMobil Australia plans to shut its 80,000 b/d refinery in Melbourne and convert it into a fuel import terminal; traders said that gasoil exports into Australia looks set to continue rising on the back of the announcement.
- There were also reports saying that lean production volumes from Japan and South Korea, and upcoming refinery turnarounds, could serve to cushion the impact of the bigger exports from China.
- Thus, Asian gasoil balances are likely to have further tightening over the next few months as upcoming refinery maintenance operators may opt for earlier and longer turnarounds due to the depressed margins.

FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.02 to P48.04 from P48.06 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The oil companies implemented their price increase effective today, 16 February 2021. Gasoline has increased by P0.75 per liter, P1.25 per liter for diesel and kerosene by P1.10 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P4.00/liter for gasoline, P3.90/liter for diesel and P3.35/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

_______

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

_______

¹ Market condition where the forward or futures contract price of a commodity (or oil) traded below the expected spot price at contract maturity.

Posted on: January 28, 2021 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 18-22, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$0.50/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also decreased: gasoline by about US$0.65 per barrel and diesel by around US$0.30 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

With weak oil demand in Europe and the US, market analysts fear of renewed lockdowns in China could further weaken the demand outlook for oil and oil products.
- A new outbreak of coronavirus in some Chinese cities has sparked fears that the country could experience another wave of the pandemic.
- Chinese authorities have imposed mobility restrictions in affected cities, including Beijing, and have called on citizens to refrain from travel during the upcoming Lunar New Year holiday.
- Thus, China’s oil demand to see a sharp month-on-month decline of 1.3 million b/d in February.

On the other hand, Algerian Energy Minister Abdelmadjid Attar said that global vaccination campaigns and the resumption of international air traffic will support oil prices within $55-$60/b in the near term, but OPEC will be closely watching for clearer signals from new US President Joe Biden on whether he will ease sanctions on Iran and Venezuela.
- Any relief in the sanctions could unleash crude volumes that would complicate the producer bloc’s efforts to rebalance the market amid a still fragile global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Sentiment around gasoline demand is unpromising with COVID-19 infections and associated measures are trending upwards in Indonesia, Malaysia, Japan, and China.
- Asia’s largest gasoline importer Indonesia is expected to import around 8 million barrels of gasoline in February as local demand was seen to have steady recovery through to the end of 2020.
- But with daily infections recently surging to the highest on record, the government has been pushed into new lockdown measures covering Jakarta, the rest of Java, and Bali. Hence, the outlook for Indonesian demand remains uncertain in the near term.
The diesel market outlook appears more uncertain, with some sources saying that the sentiment could turn more bearish ahead of expectations of a slowdown in activity across large parts of the region ahead of the Lunar New Year holidays. The situation may further be compounded by still healthy gasoil export flows from China over February.
- The conditions of low refinery runs, depressed demand, and closed arbitrage to Europe has left markets unresponsive to recent cold weather, which would traditionally be a positive driver for gasoil values (it being used as heating fuel).
- Regional balances could begin to tighten when spring refinery maintenance season begin to kick in. Some refiners may opt to start turnaround earlier because of current weak margins and demand.

FOREX: Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.01 to P48.06 from P48.07 in previous week.

Other recommended reference sites:

    • http://www.aip.com.au/pricing;
    • http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=crude-oil-dubai
    • https://www.quandl.com/data/ODA/POILDUB_USD-Dubai-Crude-Oil-Price

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The oil companies implemented their price decrease effective today, 26 January 2021, i.e. gasoline by P0.15 per liter and P0.10 per liter decreased both for diesel and kerosene.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P2.15/liter for gasoline, P1.55/liter for diesel and P1.50/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

_______

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: January 18, 2021 by pip_admin

Source: DOE Website

WORLD OIL PRICES (January 4-8, 2021 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by around US$2.00/bbl. MOPS gasolineand MOPs diesel have also increased: gasoline by about US$2.60 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$0.90 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ partners jolted prices higher on Jan. 5 by adjusting February and March production plans well below market (and Platts Analytics’) expectations.
- Platts Analytics initial analysis indicates OPEC+ forecast will be reduced by over 1.5 million b/d (MMB/D) in February-March, with the overwhelming majority of the revision coming from Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi Arabia’s clear determination to support short-term markets through an additional 1MMB/D cut, with Brent already above $50/b, far outweighs Russian reluctance to even freeze output for now.

Following the OPEC+ announcement, Saudi Aramco announced its official selling prices (OSPs) to Asia for February-loadings; prices to Asia were increased as expected, by between 20-70 cents/b.
- This likely reflects the impact of the additional production cuts, the bulk of which will likely come at the expense of supply to Asia, which account for over 70% of Saudi exports.
- Asian buyers have responded rapidly to the Saudi actions, with spot prices for alternative Russia and Middle Eastern grades rising. The Dubai spread jumped to an 11-month high, reflecting the broad strength in the Asian-focused sour crude market.

An overnight crude price rally extended in mid-day US trading Jan. 8 as expectations of robust stimulus spending from the incoming Biden administration offset a weaker-than-expected US jobs report.
- According to media reports US President-elect Joe Biden said his administration’s stimulus package would be in the trillions of dollars.

Markets were also still riding a wave of optimism sparked by tightened crude supply outlooks.
- Data released by the US-EIA showed a sizable 8.01 million-barrel draw on US crude stocks for the week ending Jan. 1. The larger-than-expected draw came after Saudi Arabia announced at the end of the meeting of its voluntary slashing February and March crude production by 1 MMB/D.

The Asian gasoline market stayed firm at the end of the trading week Jan. 8, with another fresh bout of support from the West keeping crack spreads steady.
- The uptick came after supportive news emerged on the international oilmarket front, with Saudi Arabia’s announcement.
- This 1 MMB/D decline in production would more than compensate for the combined 75,000 b/d increase granted to Russia and Kazakhstan in February and March during the meeting, especially since all other members are expected to hold their production steady.

For gasoil/diesel, Platts report on Jan. 6 stated that European demand was set to remain depressed over the next few months, with new announcements of lockdowns and extensions to existing restrictions heaping bearish sentiment on the European gasoil complex.
- Demand concerns in Europe have returned to center stage as tightening movement restrictions were set to hamper fresh requirements. England, on Jan. 5, entered its most stringent nationwide lockdown since March in a bid to curb surging coronavirus infections, including a new highly transmissible strain that is threatening to choke the country’s healthcare system, while Germany is likely to extend its lockdown until the end of January.
- On the other hand, the Asian gasoil market has been supported by consistent demand from Australia as well as pockets of demand from Southeast Asia, thus helping the Asian gasoil market to remain relatively steady.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.02 to P48.05 from P48.03 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The oil companies implemented their price increase effective today, 12 January 2021, i.e. gasoline by P0.85 per liter, diesel by P0.30 per liter and kerosene by P0.25 per liter.

These resulted to the year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net increase of P1.30/liter for gasoline, P0.60/liter for diesel and P0.65/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

_______

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: October 30, 2020 by pip_admin

Source: https://www.doe.gov.ph/oil-monitor

WORLD OIL PRICES (October 19-23, 2020 trading days)

Dubai crude has increased week-on-week by a little of US$0.03/bbl. On the contrary MOPS gasoline and diesel have decreased; MOPS gasoline by about US$0.15 per barrel and MOPS diesel by around US$0.90 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

Libya plans to ramp up crude production to 1 million b/d (MMB/D) in four weeks following the September United Nations-backed ceasefire in the country. The recently peace agreement lifted an eight-month blockade by the Libyan National Army on most crude exports.

Libya National Oil Corp. confirmed in reports last week that production would rise to 800,000 b/d in two weeks and to about 1 MMB/D in four weeks. As of October 20, Libyan production had risen to more than 500,000 b/d according to S&P Global Platts. Libya produced about 1.6 MMB/D of crude in normal situation.

Some analysts see the rapid rising of Libyan barrels to be an issue to the OPEC+ group as it could disrupt its quest to balance the oil market. Libya’s additional crude could change the story back to oversupply concerns as crude demand outlook weakens, as the world continues on restrictive measures and lockdowns to contain COVID-19.

OPEC+ tapered production cut to 7.8 MMB/D from 9.7 MMB/D in August, and is scheduled to roll back further to 5.8 MMB/D starting in January. However, with a second wave of coronavirus infections weighing on the oil market’s outlook, many OPEC+ ministers are expected to keep the current cuts in place.
Asian demand for Middle East crude was noted to have been recently increasing in view of higher demand by key importers-China and India for the December-loading cycle. Improved refining margins in October also helped boosted demand.
The Asian gasoline market ended the week on a soft note amid lackluster demand and greater supply, with more cargo offerings from India. Platts expect regional gasoline supply in an upturn as runs begin to climb in November after the maintenance.

The Asian gasoil/diesel market ended the week also on a soft note with oil industry sources reiterating that low demand and good supplies were still weighing on the market complex. Refinery runs are set to begin rising in November following the conclusion of October maintenance works. Platts however noted that healthy outflows of gasoil from Singapore to Australia, Malaysia and Myanmar were recorded in the past week.

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.02 to P48.58 from P48.56 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The oil companies implemented their price adjustments effective today, 27 October 2020. Diesel and kerosene have decreased; diesel by P0.25 per liter and kerosene by P0.15 per liter. No price movement has been effected on the price of gasoline.

These resulted to the total year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net decrease of P4.67/liter for gasoline, P10.26/liter for diesel and P13.59/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

_______

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: September 16, 2020 by pip_admin

WORLD OIL PRICES (September 7- 11, 2020 trading days)

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by about US$4.50/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and MOPS diesel have also decreased: gasoline by around US$3.35 per barrel and diesel by nearly US$ 5.00 per barrel.

Reasons for the Adjustment

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released this week that global oil demand grew by 1 million b/d (MMB/D) in August, the slowest month-on-month increase since demand started recovering from coronavirus lockdowns in May. Last month (August) global supply growth surpassed demand growth, the first time during the recovery period.
The EIA cut its outlook for 2021 global oil demand growth by 500,000 b/d from last previous month forecast to 6.5 MMB/D on lower expected consumption growth in China. EIA now sees China demand growing 1 MMB/D next year, down from 1.5 MMB/D in last month’s forecast.
Reportedly, OPEC 13 members produced 24.37 MMBD in August (a 4% rise from July) while its nine partners, including Russia, added 12.67 MMB/D (a 6% increase). The higher output was expected as the OPEC+ coalition had been scheduled to ease output to 7.7 MMB/D (from 9.7 MMB/D in June and July) for the rest of the year starting in August. The group achieved 97% compliance with its new quotas in the month, according to Platts calculations.
However, OPEC’s increased production is coming at a time when the rapid recovery of global oil demand appears to be stalling, amid fears of a growing second wave of COVID-19 infections. Thus, Crude oil markets have softened markedly over the past week, with Dated Brent falling below $40/b for the first time since mid-June. In the sour crude market, Dubai times-spreads had been on an upward trend for the second half of August but have seen a sharp reversal over the past two weeks. The Dubai M1/M3 time-spread was at minus 73 cents/b on September 10.
Asian gasoline weakens during the week (Sep 4-11) as supply concerns return, dragging on fundamentals of Asian gasoline time-spreads that slipped deeper into contango later in the week. However, Singapore gasoline cracks (crude vs. gasoline) are now above gasoil/diesel for the first time since 2017 and could see additional support with refinery maintenance set to rise heading into October, in addition to extended accident-related outages such as Taiwan’s Formosa and Malaysia’s Pengerang.
The slump in Asian gasoil/diesel markets bottomed out, but with little sign of any recovery developing. The Singapore gasoil vs. Dubai crack was stable at $3.00/b, up moderately from last week lows. Market sentiment remains unpromising on a slowing demand recovery, high stock levels, and expectations of continued heavy exports from China though the rest of the year.
Singapore middle distillate stocks fell by 6% week-on-week to 15.05 million barrels. But despite the drop, Platts noted that stock levels remain high by historical standards, as this week’s total is the second-highest since September 2016.
A lack of European demand for gasoil will see more Middle Eastern and Indian volumes heading east to Southeast Asia, adding to the pressure on Singapore prices. With US Gulf Coast low sulfur gasoil stock at record highs and 66% higher year on year, it is difficult to see additional gasoil from the East of Suez moving to Europe even as the winter season approaches.1

1 Platts’ Asia Pacific Weekly Recap, 11 September 2020

FOREX: Philippine peso depreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.05 to P48.60 from P48.55 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

The oil companies implemented their price adjustments effective today, 15 September 2020. Gasoline has decreased of P1.00 per liter, diesel by P1.50-P1.55 per liter and kerosene by P1.45 per liter.

These resulted to the total year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net decrease of P5.22/liter for gasoline, P10.99/liter for diesel and P15.39/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph

Posted on: August 11, 2020 by pip_admin

WORLD OIL PRICES (July 27-31, 2020 trading days)
Source: Department of Energy Website

Dubai crude has decreased week-on-week by almost US$0.50/bbl. Both MOPS gasoline and diesel have also decreased by around US$0.75 and US$0.70 per barrel, respectively.

Reasons for the Adjustment

The weak US economic data put demand recovery outlooks in doubt amid rising global supply forecasts, and thus had affected on oil prices during the week.
The US reportedly had the largest-ever single-quarter GDP contraction in its history, as its GDP, estimated by US Department of Commerce, plunged by 32.9% in the second quarter this year. The US Department of Labor data also showed that weekly initial unemployment claims climbed to 1.43 million in the week ended July 25, putting the advance unemployment rate at 11.8%.
Nonetheless, even as demand outlooks dim, the market is bracing for a surge of new output as OPEC and allies officially began easing off their record production cuts starting August 01. The OPEC+ alliance relaxed its quotas by about 2 million b/d (MMB/D) from August through the rest of the year. The coalition appears eager to reclaim some of its lost market share, while not allowing the market to overtighten and unlock a wave of supplies from the US and other producers outside the group.
Some market analysts believe that increasing oil supply as OPEC did, during this time of continued weak demand, signals going back to supply surplus as has been observed in the second quarter. “OPEC’s experiment to increase production from August could backfire as we are still nowhere near out of the woods yet in terms of oil demand”, Bjornar Tonhaugen of Rystad Energy quoted.¹
Demand from top buyer China also softened due to weak margins, prolonged port congestion, severe flood and limited crude import quotas set by the government.²
Saudi Aramco is scheduled to announce its official selling price (OSPs) for September crude loadings to customers in Asia next week. The M1/M3 Dubai time spread is currently in a contango of minus 66 cents/b as compares to a backwardation of 65 cents/b this time last month³. The slide into backwardation over the past few weeks will be a concern for Aramco ahead of higher OPEC+ production starting August 01. A survey of market participants by S&P Global Platts news expects to see Aramco cut prices by between 30 cents and $1/bbl.
Gasoline remained bearish on slowing demand in the US and fresh coronavirus fears in Asia. In the US, demand was said to be almost flat since end-June, a period where it typically rises, due largely to rising COVID-19 infections in major states such as Texas, California, and Florida. Gasoline demand is facing both high infection numbers and end-of-peak summer demand next month. Thus, demand for gasoline is seen to weaken further in the coming weeks.
The emergence of new infections in Australia, Vietnam, and Hong Kong has coincided with a decline in mobility over the past two weeks. The continued surge of infections in India has also stalled the demand recovery, with mobility levels flat in recent weeks. The overall regional mobility index continues to trend upwards, but the slowing of the recovery is a bearish indicator of demand
going forwards.
Inventory of gasoil/diesel in Singapore was relatively stable in the past two weeks. However, Platts noted on the latest data indicator, which shows that exports from North Asia in the next two months will be down, i.e. by 70% year-on-year from Japan and by 30% year-on-year from Korea. Exports from Taiwan will also dip as Formosa reduces CDU and RFCC operations at its Mailiao refinery following a recent fire incident. However Chinese exports are set to rise in August on high inventories and lower domestic margins. China’s gasoil export is expected to average over 480,000 b/d through the rest of the year. The disparity between refining operations in China vs. the rest of Asia will remain a key driver for gasoil market through the second half of the year.

¹ Reuters.com
² Reuters.com
³ Contango: a situation where future price is high than the current spot.
Backwardation: a situation where future price is low than the current spot.

FOREX:

Philippine peso appreciated week-on-week against the US dollar by P0.18 to P49.19 from P49.37 in previous week.

DOMESTIC OIL PRICES

Effective 04 August 2020, the oil companies implemented a price decrease of P0.25-P0.30 per liter for gasoline, diesel by P0.25-P0.30/liter and P0.15/liter for kerosene.

This brings the total year-to-date adjustments to stand at a net decrease of P5.02/liter for gasoline, P8.59/liter for diesel and P12.69/liter for kerosene.

For the updated prevailing retail pump price, please browse this link: https://www.doe.gov.ph/price-monitoring-charts?q=retail-pump-prices-metro-manila.

For more information, call the

Department of Energy
Pricing: 840-2187
LPG: 840-2130
Fuels: 840-5669
SMS: (0915) 4469421
Email: oilmonitor@doe.gov.ph
Website: https://www.doe.gov.ph